With climate change, energy security concerns, and the rising cost of fossil fuel imports reshaping Europe’s energy priorities, the heating and cooling sector has emerged as a critical area for action. This sector accounts for half of the EU’s total final energy use. Decarbonising it is essential to achieving the EU’s climate goals for 2030 and beyond.
This report, authored by INFORSE-Europe, analyses how 17 EU Member States intend to transition to more sustainable heating and cooling systems, based on their updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) submitted between mid-2024 and early 2025. These countries represent 85% of the EU population. While the plans vary widely in quality and ambition, the report offers a comprehensive view of where progress is being made, and where it is stalling.
Some countries lead the way, but there’s room for more ambition
Only four countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, and Lithuania) currently have a clear strategy and dedicated funding to decarbonise heating and cooling. They are on track to meet the updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED 3) targets. In contrast, Bulgaria, France, Greece, Ireland, and Italy are falling behind, either meeting only minimum targets or relying heavily on biomass rather than options like ambient heat and solar energy.
Denmark, Lithuania, and Sweden are standout performers, each expected to reach 80% renewable energy use in heating and cooling by 2030. Several others (including Portugal and Spain) meet current targets but lack clear, long-term decarbonisation strategies and remain overly-reliant on biomass.
Policy gaps and missed opportunities
Many NECPs fail to outline concrete steps to improve energy efficiency or assist vulnerable households. Bulgaria and Italy, for example, face high levels of energy poverty yet offer few measures to support low-income consumers. Meanwhile, few countries have introduced bans on fossil-fuel boilers, a proven method to drive decarbonisation. Only seven countries have done so, with Austria and the Netherlands leading since 2018 and 2020, respectively.
Local-level implementation also varies. Several Member States—including Hungary, Ireland, Italy, and Romania—fail to align national plans with municipal heating and cooling strategies. Community energy initiatives and one-stop advisory services are underdeveloped in many areas, leaving households with limited guidance or support.
What needs to happen next
To accelerate progress towards decarbonised heating and cooling, Member States could:
- Adopt stricter building codes to limit energy consumption
- Promote renewable district heating
- Provide better financial support for energy renovations and heat pumps (with natural refrigerants)
- Ban new oil and gas boilers
- Ensure lower electricity prices to make heat pumps more affordable than gas boilers
The updated NECPs offer a mixed picture: while some countries show leadership and innovation, most still have far to go to meet the EU’s heating and cooling decarbonisation goals. With just five years until 2030, urgent action and policy coherence are needed at both national and local levels.